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Declassified CIA files: Buhari 1984 cabinet was dominated by Hausa and Fulani officers

Recently, some secret documents were recovered from the archive of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). These files analysed and assessed many sectors of the Nigerian economy and also made predictions about the things that are most likely to happen in the future.

A screenshot of one of the pages of the CIA secret documents denying access.

Nigeria’s new and strongly nationalistic military regime appears to be dominated largely by senior northern Muslim officers according to the declassified CIA files released. The then head of state, Major General Muhammadu Buhari, had promised a vigorous campaign to curb corruption and improve living standards but he was obviously had no knowledge of the extent of the country’s economic crisis.

Buhari’s initial actions indicated that he did not have plan to make major changes in Nigeria’s domestic and foreign policies. The report revealed that Washington may find Lagos more difficult to deal with.

The secret document also revealed that the regime may seek to make the West and the international financial community scapegoats for Nigeria’s economic woes if the regime got frustrated by continued economic decline.

Also, the information stumbled upon in the secret file declassified and released for viewing was the fact that Buhari’s pledge to pursue a more dynamic role in foreign affairs might lead to harsher criticism of the US policy in southern Africa and this may affect the posturing to underscore Nigeria’s nonalignment.

The declassified CIA files also revealed useful information about the new leadership. The government strongly resembled Nigeria’s last military regime. Senior civil servants were relied on to hold key economic positions and to carry out policy.

1. New leadership

A screenshot of one of the ages of the declassified CIA document.

The important point to be noted in this file shows that the 17-member Supreme Military Council responsible for policy making was dominated by the Hausas and Fulanis with a minute fraction being southern Yoruba officers who served in the military from 1975 to 1979.

The extensive administrative experience of these officers was aimed to provide continuity and help carry out the transition to military rule.

An early test of the regime was a test-running scheme used to forestall ethnic grumbling. The secret document revealed that it would be necessary for the government to provide for wider representation by non-northerners in cabinet and gubernatorial appointments.

2. Economic morass

A page of the secret declassified CIA document showing the map of Nigeria.

The declassified files showed that Buhari will quickly find that he has a few options for dealing with Nigeria’s worst economic recession since the civil war in 1967-70. The document showed that the military will have to contend with reduced revenues that were half of their peak in 1980.

The Shagari government had to cut imports to the lowest since 1977 and allowed short term trade arrearages to mount as a means of making ends meet.

This move was analyzed to have left Nigeria with major shortages of essential consumer industrial goods, unemployment and total unpaid bills that were last estimated to be between $6 to $7 billion the previous year.

The CIA file revealed that the nee head of state was yet to announce a comprehensive economic recovery plan.

Buhari pledged not to break with OPEC, and the government probably will seek at least initially to resume negotiations with the IMF for a $2. 5 billion loan and with international banks to reschedule the remaining $5 billion in short-term arrearages.

3. Relations with the US

A screenshot of one of the pages of the declassified CIA documents.

Buhari was described as a pragmatic, pro-Western, anti-communist and strongly nationalistic leader.

The released report revealed that the military will seek to maintain cooperative ties with the US even though Buhari tried to distinguish his regime from the more conservative, inward-looking Shagari government that was criticized by Nigerians. The Shagari government was said to have accommodated the West more.

4. The outlook

A screenshot showing one of the pages of the declassified CIA documents.

The new regime will probably try to buy time to deal with the economy by focusing attention on the corruption and inefficiency of the former civilian government.

It was also predicted that Buhari would be unable to keep promises to improve standards without first imposing prolonged and painful austerity measures.

The document revealed that the stability of his government ultimately will rest on its willingness and ability to address the roots of the economic malaise-over-dependence on oil revenue.

Also, it was predicted that Buhari would also find it difficult to control the political and ethnic rivalries that will now shift from the political arena to the armed forces and that over time will strain the military’s cohesion.